SPC MD 331


MD 0331 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southern MS/LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 080444Z - 080715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk may persist overnight, but watch
issuance will probably not be needed.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell has persisted as it moved
eastward across central/eastern LA into far southwestern MS.
Low/mid-level rotation has been noted with this storm, with
additional convection in a loosely organized line extending
southwestward across southern LA. This activity may continue to pose
an isolated strong/gusty wind threat for at least the next few hours
as it moves slowly eastward across southern LA/MS. A rich low-level
airmass exists along/south of the ongoing storms, with around
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE available. The VWP from KLCH shows
low/mid-level winds have veered to westerly, likely reducing the
tornado threat across southwestern LA. Farther east into
southeastern LA and southern MS, recent surface observations and the
VWP from KLIX indicate the presence of southeasterly surface winds
veering to southwesterly in the boundary layer. Sufficient low-level
shear remains present to support updraft rotation, and a brief
tornado still appears possible in the short term, mainly with the
ongoing supercell along the LA/MS border. Regardless, the primary
large-scale forcing for ascent should continue to shift northward
and away from this region overnight. Overall severe threat will
likely remain rather isolated, and watch issuance appears unlikely
at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 04/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30379317 30749226 31249114 31429005 31418909 31048904
            30668919 30378970 30079059 29979182 30039270 30379317 

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