SPC MD 362



MD 0362 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA

MD 0362 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Areas affected...southeastern Georgia and northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101913Z - 102115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of stronger storms withing an evolving convective
band may produce locally gusty winds or a brief tornado.  WW
issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an uptick in the intensity of
the ongoing convective band moving across northern Florida/southern
Georgia.  This has occurred as diurnal heating of the modestly moist
boundary layer has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values up into the 500 to
1000 J/kg range ahead of the band, and west of the now inland
sea-breeze boundary.

With storms moving east-northeastward at roughly 35 kt, and a mixed
sub-cloud layer, gusty winds can be expected within the band of
storms.  A stronger gust or two -- possibly approaching severe
levels, cannot be ruled out; nor can a brief QLCS-type spin-up, as
storms reach peak intensity over the next 1-2 hours.  Interaction of
this band of storms with the sea-breeze front may support a
further/brief uptick in convective intensity, before storms begin
moving offshore later this afternoon.

..Goss/Thompson.. 04/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   31268260 31168224 31018197 30308160 29548139 28798202
            28798248 28918287 29158308 29928293 30238302 31288274
            31268260 

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