SPC MD 396



MD 0396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA

MD 0396 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Areas affected...East central Florida peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 181716Z - 181945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible
this afternoon across the Greater Orlando into Space Coast vicinity,
particularly closer to 4-6 PM EDT.  This may include an isolated
supercell or two, posing a risk for large hail and locally strong
surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...Strong differential surface heating is ongoing along a
convectively reinforced surface boundary extending across the
peninsula, north of Tampa through the Greater Orlando Metropolitan
area and the Cape Canaveral vicinity.  South of this frontal zone,
where dew points are around 70F, temperatures have warmed into the
80s.  This appears to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE on the
order of 1500-2000 J/kg, in the presence of strongly sheared
westerly deep-layer mean flow.  The generally unidirectional wind
profiles include 40-50 kt in the 700-500 mb layer, weakening to
around 20 kt around the 850 mb layer.  

This appears focused near the northern periphery of warmer and more
strongly capping layers aloft, associated with mid/upper subtropical
ridging, which remain evident in recent ACARS soundings from
Orlando.  However, as near-surface convergence becomes increasingly
focused across the Orlando into Space Coast vicinity through mid to
late afternoon, potential for the initiation of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms is expected to increase.

Latest High-Resolution Rapid Refresh suggests that isolated
thunderstorm development is possible as early as 18-19Z, but
sustained thunderstorm development seems more probable a bit later
this afternoon, aided by increasingly divergent upper flow,
downstream of a mid-level impulse approaching the Florida Gulf
coast.  If/when this occurs, the environment will be conducive to
storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong surface
gusts.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 04/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   28818171 28928130 28908068 28408060 28228114 28288160
            28488194 28818171 

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