SPC MD 544



MD 0544 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL CO

MD 0544 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Areas affected...east-central CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051807Z - 052030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-65 mph) and marginally severe
hail (1.0-1.25 inches in diameter) are possible with the stronger
storms later this afternoon (2pm-6pm MDT).

DISCUSSION...Visible and water-vapor satellite imagery show a
mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast through northern
portions of CO while a developing area of convection slowly
intensifies near the CO Front Range.  The activity near Denver and
Ft. Collins as of 12pm MDT, will gradually move southeastward with
additional storm development likely to develop within a cumulus
field near the Palmer Divide.  The latest forecast soundings
indicate convective temperatures have been breached with
temperatures in the middle 50s F.  Upwards of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE is
also noted in the forecast soundings (Limon, CO in particular) with
an inverted-v profile and 35-kt effective shear.  The steep lapse
rate profile will support the transfer of stronger gusts to the
surface once mature thunderstorm cores become established and a
marginally severe hail risk could accompany the strongest updrafts. 
Given the overall marginally severe intensity/coverage of a few
severe storms, a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently
anticipated.

..Smith.. 05/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37930371 39460472 40060415 39860333 39350213 38660183
            37880263 37930371 

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