SPC MD 546



MD 0546 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS

MD 0546 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0546
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Nebraska into northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 052047Z - 052215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail or a damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out with one of the stronger storms. A WW issuance
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...High-based, low-topped convection continues to
intensify ahead of a slowly east-southeastward advancing cold front
across portions of the Central Plains per latest MRMS mosaic radar
imagery. Immediately along the front, latest Mesoanalysis depicts up
to 500 J/kg MLCAPE driven primarily by ample insolation, mid 40s
surface dewpoints, and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates advected
eastward by modest mid-level flow. One of the stronger storms may
briefly support a couple instances of severe hail, though hail is
expected to remain small overall given the very skinny CAPE vertical
profiles. A damaging gust also cannot be ruled out given the
relatively dry boundary layer, as also inferred by near 20F
temperature/dewpoint depressions via the latest METAR observations.

The severe threat area should be confined to a limited area east of
the front given overall scant low-level moisture and slow eastward
advection of the steeper lapse rates. The locally confined, brief
nature of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39089897 39479916 40029890 40799836 41789785 42029771
            42149718 41979669 41599641 41489639 41049625 39989655
            39319756 39139847 39089897 

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