SPC MD 550



MD 0550 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PENINSULA

MD 0550 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Thu May 06 2021

Areas affected...Central/Eastern FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061605Z - 061800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Coverage of thunderstorms will likely increase over the
next few hours. Some of these storms could be severe. An upgrade to
Slight Risk is forthcoming for the Space Coast.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown increasingly deep
cumulus over the past half hour or so across much of the central FL
Peninsula, south of a cold front extending from CGC eastward to OMN.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of this front
as the air mass continues to destabilize, resulting in moderate
instability this afternoon. Additionally, moderate mid-level flow
extends across northern portions of central FL (roughly the northern
half of MLB's CWA) appears strong enough to support storm
organization and the potential for a somewhat organized convective
cluster. 

Given the expectation for increasing storm coverage and potential
for updraft organization, an upgrade to 15% wind/hail probabilities
is forthcoming in the 1630Z Convective Outlook for the Space Coast.
Convective trends will also be monitored closely for possible watch
issuance. Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts, although
hail and potentially even a brief tornado are also possible.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27708024 27378089 27488126 28158157 28688187 29368183
            29478097 27708024 

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