SPC MD 895



MD 0895 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MS…FAR SOUTHEAST AR…FAR NORTHEAST LA

MD 0895 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

Areas affected...central into northern MS...far southeast AR...far
northeast LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091706Z - 091930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wet microbursts will probably result in localized
gusts 45-60 mph and pockets of wind damage this afternoon.  The
disorganized character of the thunderstorm threat will likely
preclude a severe thunderstorm watch from being issued.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic shows developing
thunderstorms over north-central MS and a separate thunderstorm
cluster intersecting trailing outflow over northwest MS.  Cloud
breaks over north-central MS and mostly clear skies over central MS
will favor strong heating for the next few hours as temperatures
warm into the mid-upper 80s deg F.  A very moist airmass,
characterized by low-mid 70s dewpoints and PW around 2 inches, will
further destabilize and yield around 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by early
afternoon.  Weak flow through the troposphere will result in
slow-moving cells and clusters.  The main threat with the stronger
water-loaded cores (higher echo tops and marginally severe MESH
cores) will be localized gusts in the 45-60 mph range.  Pockets of
tree damage are anticipated to be the primary end-result with the
most intense storms.

..Smith/Guyer.. 06/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33609252 33899125 34178995 33768845 32828855 32209030
            32649199 33609252 

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