SPC MD 896


MD 0896 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0896
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

Areas affected...Southeastern Virginia into eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091744Z - 091945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds will be possible with water-loaded
downdrafts this afternoon. Some potential exists for greater
organization as cold pools merge. No WW is anticipated, but trends
in storm organization will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along the Blue Ridge in
central Virginia. These storms are expected to slowly drift
southeastward into a hot and very moist airmass. Dewpoints in the
low 70s F and temperatures that may near 90 F will support moderate
buoyancy of 2000 to perhaps greater than 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. This
morning's observed soundings at WAL and MHX sampled 6-7 C/km lapse
rates. Storm intensification will not be overly quick given the
modest lapse rates and rather weak flow aloft. However, locally
intense water-loaded downdrafts are possible with an attendant
threat for damaging winds. Storm coverage may also be sufficient for
a small cluster or two to develop later this afternoon. Should this
occur, the threat for damaging winds would be locally greater ahead
of the clusters. A WW is not anticipated this afternoon, but trends
will be monitored for greater cold-pool-related organization.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   36617926 37567902 38117860 38257792 37227639 36337572
            35577593 34997699 35027783 35637847 36617926 

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