SPC MD 897


MD 0897 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

Areas affected...Portions of northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091808Z - 092015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible
this afternoon before storms move north of the international border
in northern Minnesota. Storms may develop into central Minnesota,
but uncertainty in coverage and intensity are greater. A WW is not
expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed near the international
border and in northwest Minnesota in association with a weak frontal
wave cyclone/MCV. Effective shear magnitudes may approach 50 kts in
close proximity to the MCV with a decrease with southward extent.
The strongest storms are expected to occur in northern Minnesota
where the most favorable overlap of buoyancy and shear will exist.
The 12Z INL sounding sampled 7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rate which
will promote a threat for large hail. Damaging wind gusts will also
be possible given strong surface heating. A few storms may also
develop farther south along a weak convergence zone into parts of
central Minnesota. There is uncertainty here as the better mid-level
ascent and shear will remain north and continue to lift away from
the region this afternoon. Damaging winds would be the more likely
threat with southward extent, with any large hail being much more
isolated. A WW is not expected as the strongest storms are expected
to move into Manitoba/Ontario relatively quickly.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   46399606 48409740 49099749 49249443 48639345 47069379
            46219428 45959524 45939570 46399606 

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