SPC MD 898



MD 0898 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

MD 0898 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0898
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

Areas affected...Southeastern New York and portions of southern New
England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091919Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms along a weak surface boundary will
bring potential for damaging downdraft winds this afternoon. Storm
coverage and degree of cold-pool organization is quite unclear. No
WW is expected.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures in southern New England have rise into the
upper 80s F in most locations and may breach 90 F in some locations
later this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy has developed despite only
modest mid-level lapse rates due to a very moist boundary layer
(upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints). Visible satellite imagery
indicates towering cumulus and isolated thunderstorms developing
from southeastern New York into Massachusetts along/near a slowly
southward moving surface boundary. Additional isolated thunderstorm
development is probable this afternoon as the front nears the
southern New England coast. Storm coverage is likely the biggest
question given the overall weak frontal forcing. Development on
local terrain features or interactions with the sea breeze are the
most probable locations. Subtle enhancement to the northwesterly
flow on the southern flank of an upper cyclone may increase
effective shear to perhaps 20 kts. Isolated damaging winds are
possible with storms this afternoon, particularly where any
clustering of activity can occur. No WW is expected given coverage
uncertainties and storms exiting the coast relatively quickly.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   41487493 42097484 42597416 42597293 42567156 42527056
            42336982 41886973 41327052 40797235 40607320 40537372
            40657421 41117475 41487493 

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