SPC MD 912



MD 0912 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

MD 0912 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Areas affected...Northeast South Carolina and southeast North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 110011Z - 110215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A linear cluster of storms with an organized outflow may
produce sporadic damaging winds as it moves towards the coast over
the next hour. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A linear cluster of storms has gradually strengthened
over the past hour over northern South Carolina within a moist and
weakly capped environment. While other convective cells and clusters
to the north have weakened due to convective overturning/outflow
from prior activity, this cluster has largely remained within a
favorable air mass. KLTX velocity data suggests an organized outflow
has developed, which will likely continue for the next hour or so
thanks to line-normal (though weak) low to mid-level flow (per the
KLTX VWP). One mitigating factor is increasing inhibition on the
northern side of a residual outflow boundary just ahead of the
cluster, though forcing along the outflow may allow parcels to reach
their LFCs and maintain the cluster as it moves towards the coast.
Overall, a few damaging wind gusts are possible, but the severe
threat is expected to remain too localized to warrant a watch.

..Moore/Dial.. 06/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34807931 34857884 34627805 34287746 33727776 33727832
            33507875 33567900 33857944 34237955 34447952 34807931 

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