SPC MD 913


MD 0913 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0913
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Areas affected...Western/central SD/NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 110128Z - 110300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A rapid increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected near
and after 02Z. One or more clusters capable of significant damaging
wind will be possible, along with some threat for hail and possibly
a tornado or two. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Despite the presence of favorable instability and shear
noted in regional 00Z soundings, thunderstorm development has thus
far been suppressed across western SD/NE, likely due lingering
MLCINH and midlevel subsidence noted on WV imagery. However, the
subsidence zone is shifting eastward with time, and convection
across eastern WY has recently intensified as ascent from an
upstream shortwave trough begins to overspread the region.
Meanwhile, a cold front is accelerating eastward toward the region,
with very strong post-frontal winds noted across portions of
southern MT and northern WY. 

As ascent continues to overspread the region, the front begins to
catch up with the dryline, and the low-level jet begins to increase,
a substantial increase in storm coverage is expected near and after
02Z from far eastern WY into western SD/NE. Even though MLCINH will
be increasing with time, steep midlevel lapse rates will support
vigorous convection near and just behind the front later tonight,
with some potential for a surface-based supercell or two into the
late evening. Any surface-based storm would be capable of very large
hail and possibly a tornado. Later tonight, one or more organized
clusters are expected to develop and move quickly eastward, with
large DCAPE supporting the potential for swaths of damaging wind
even as convection becomes increasingly elevated with time. Watch
issuance is likely by 02Z in order to cover these threats.

..Dean/Dial.. 06/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   41600400 44670387 45830380 45870212 45880083 45550030
            44629970 43789937 42979926 42199956 41679998 41410092
            41340215 41350291 41600400 

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