SPC MD 915


MD 0915 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0915
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Areas affected...Northwest SD...Southwest ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253...254...

Valid 110405Z - 110530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253, 254

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorm clusters will increase the
damaging wind threat through 06Z, with some hail also possible.

DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has increased substantially across
western SD and northwest NE over the last hour, with a few reports
of severe hail and wind already noted across western SD. A
well-defined outflow has emerged across northwest SD, with
additional development noted along its leading flank. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and strong MUCAPE (2500-3500 J/kg) will favor intense
updrafts, even with convection that is slightly elevated behind the
outflow. Additional southward development may occur as the low-level
jet continues to increase and an accelerating cold front moves into
the region. 

Increasing midlevel flow and effective shear with time will support
organized convection, and steep lapse rates through a deep layer
just above a nocturnal inversion will favor outflow production and
an increasing threat of more widespread severe wind with time.
Embedded supercell structures capable of hail will also be possible
for at least another 2-3 hours, before convective mode becomes
increasingly linear with time.

..Dean.. 06/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   44240082 43590098 42330186 42020342 42160402 42790391
            43850363 45050349 45930393 46560419 46840332 46820224
            46410133 45850084 44940076 44240082 

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