SPC MD 916



MD 0916 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254… FOR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA

MD 0916 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0916
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Areas affected...Northwest North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254...

Valid 110421Z - 110615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind, including significant wind gusts, will remain
likely as a strong line of storms moves across northwest North
Dakota over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms moving across western ND has a history
of producing severe hail and measured winds over 60 mph with a few
reports of 70-90 mph gusts. Radar imagery from KGGW and KMBX shows a
well organized squall line that is showing signs of a bowing segment
and accompanying rear inflow jet on the northern edge. This line
will continue to propagate to the north/northeast across northwest
ND on the edge of the instability gradient over the next 1-2 hours.
50-70 knot effective bulk shear will help maintain storm
organization, and increasing low-level flow (60-70 knots observed in
the lowest 1-2 km layer per KBMX VWP observations) in the vicinity
of the advancing surface low suggest a high probability of severe,
and possibly significant severe, wind gusts as the lines progresses
towards the international border.

..Moore.. 06/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   48040440 48620441 49080413 49070086 49060019 48780008
            48290041 47830147 47380265 47200343 47340394 48040440 

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