SPC MD 918



MD 0918 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN SD/ND AND NORTHEAST NE

MD 0918 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

Areas affected...eastern SD/ND and northeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 110552Z - 110645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms with a history of producing
severe thunderstorm wind gusts and hail will continue spreading
eastward across the Dakotas and parts of northern Nebraska
overnight. New severe thunderstorm watches will be needed in the
next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized bowing segments with strong rear-inflow
jets have been noted in radar imagery over the past hour, and have
produced numerous severe wind gust reports. This activity will
continue tracking generally eastward at around 40-50 kt the next
several hours. This should bring these storms to edges of WW 253 and
WW 254 between 07z-08z. Moderate to strong instability remains
downstream across the eastern Dakotas into northeast NE, along with
a southerly 850 mb jet around 35-45 kt. While low level inhibition
exists due to nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer, very steep
lapse rates remain between 2-6 km. As a result, a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space should continue to
support a well-organized QLCS capable of severe/damaging gusts into
portions of eastern ND/SD and northeast NE during the overnight
hours.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 06/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   48420008 48829965 48929895 48839815 48309761 47169705
            45319683 43959664 42769680 41979722 41909820 41919898
            42249970 43509988 45520016 48130010 48420008 

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